In early June, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan signed an agreement to prepare for the construction and operation of the Kambarata-1 Hydroelectric Power Station. This new hydroelectric plant, initially planned in the 1980s, will be built on the Naryn River in Kyrgyzstan. In this article, POLITIK Central Asia explores why this project is significant, why Uzbekistan is involved, and why environmentalists are skeptical about its implementation.

Lingering Construction Project

The Kambarata-1 HPP was designed by Soviet hydraulic institutes in the 1980s. Construction was expected to begin in the 1990s, funded by the centralized capital investments of the USSR Ministry of Energy, with Kyrgyz and Russian organizations involved. Canadian company SNC-Lavalin and Russian company ENEX conducted a feasibility study and prepared a technical report.

However, the collapse of the Soviet Union brought the project to a halt for an extended period. Several attempts were made to revive it, including an effort by Russian company Inter RAO UES in 2012, but in 2016, Kyrgyz authorities canceled the agreement due to “investor inactivity.”

In March 2021, during the Kyrgyz president’s visit to Uzbekistan, the two countries signed an agreement on joint preparation for the “Construction of Kambarata-1 HPP” investment project, alongside a protocol on mutual electricity supply.

Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov inaugurated the initial construction of Kambarata-1 in June 2022, with around $20 million allocated for the first phase. The plant’s installed capacity will be 1,860 MW, generating an average of 5.6 billion kWh of electricity annually. The reservoir will have a useful capacity of 2.87 million cubic meters.

The Kambarata-1 HPP is to be located about 15 km upstream from the existing Kambarata-2 HPP and approximately 20 km from the upper part of the Toktogul Reservoir.

The “Energy Project of the Century”

According to the project’s feasibility study, developed by a consortium of SNC-Lavalin International Inc. (Canada) and Russia’s Southern Energy Engineering Center, the cost of construction in 2014 was estimated at $2.9 billion. However, on April 13th, Kyrgyzstan’s president announced that project costs would range from $5 to $6 billion, with a payback period of 13–15 years. In May, Uzbekistan’s Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov valued the project at $2.9 billion.

A joint stock company will be created in Kyrgyzstan for project implementation, with Kyrgyzstan holding a 34% stake and Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan each holding 33%. The project will be financed by the three countries’ budgets, along with loans and grants from international financial institutions and banks.

Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev identified the Kambarata-1 HPP a mega-project, stating that it “will contribute to the sustainable development of not only Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan but the entire region.”

Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev also expressed confidence in the project, calling it a potential “energy project of the century” alongside Tajikistan’s Rogun HPP. “The construction of these facilities will bring a multiplier effect to all parties,” he said.

The project is supported by the World Bank, which has allocated $13.6 million to finalize the feasibility study, update environmental and social assessments, and develop a financing plan. 

Tatiana Proskuryakova, the World Bank’s regional director for Central Asia, highlighted during the Tashkent Investment Forum that the Kambarata-1 and Rogun HPPs will help mitigate the risks of water scarcity and aid in the region’s decarbonization efforts.

” The appeal of this project lies in the fact that it benefits not only the Kyrgyz Republic but the entire region, helping to reduce drought risks. In low-water years, it’s crucial to rely on large reservoirs, and Kambarata-1 and Rogun HPPs provide that security,” she said.

Expert Askarali Karimov

Askarali Karimov, a native of the Denau district of Surkhandarya, graduated from the Tashkent Institute of Irrigation Engineers and Agricultural Mechanization with a focus on hydraulic construction. His bachelor’s degree specializes in dam construction, and he has worked on the Tupolang Reservoir. He holds a Doctor of Science in Civil Engineering and a PhD in Water Resource Management and Hydrology from Texas A&M University. He is also an active member of several professional organizations, including the American Water Works Association and the American Society of Civil Engineers.

Hydraulic engineer, Doctor of Technical Sciences, and Doctor of Philosophy in Water Resources Management and Hydrological Sciences at Texas A&M University, Askarali Karimov, noted in an interview with POLITIK Central Asia that under the administration of the first President, Islam Karimov, Uzbekistan did not support the Kambarata and Rogun HPPs.

However, he acknowledged that under President Mirziyoyev, relations between neighboring countries have improved significantly, both politically and economically. “This is a major victory for Uzbekistan and the entire region.”

“I have always advocated understanding Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan when it comes to building HPPs because they lack rich natural resources, relying mainly on water. Construction of the Rogun and Kambarata HPPs was inevitable. Imagine if Uzbekistan were in their place – we would have built these facilities long ago, as they are in the national interest,” he said.

Photo: Marat Nadjibaev

According to climatologist Dr. Erkin Abdullakhatov, the Syr Darya River is used by Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan, with Uzbekistan consuming almost 72% of the available 13.3 cubic kilometers of water in 2023. Tajikistan and Kazakhstan follow with 12–13% each, while Kyrgyzstan uses about 3–4%.

“Because the Syr Darya does not run through the economically developed regions of Kyrgyzstan, agriculture in this country is fed from other river basins. In this regard, Kyrgyzstan uses water from the Syr Darya, Naryn and Karadarya only for energy purposes – to produce electricity through numerous hydroelectric power plants,” he said.

At the same time, Kyrgyzstan has a high demand for electricity against the background of economic development, especially in winter, due to which it uses a large volume of water for electricity generation at the Toktogul HPP, and there are regular problems with water accumulation in the reservoir, where water is already falling to the “dead level” of 7.5 billion cubic meters.

As a result, the Kyrgyz side withdraws more water in summer for the reservoir to use later in winter, which aggravates the problem of water deficit in the Sughd province of Tajikistan and reduces the annual volume of water passing through the Fergana Valley of Uzbekistan. For comparison, while in summer, during the growing season, up to 300-400 cu/s of water is released from the reservoir, in the fall-winter period – 500-700 and even up to 1000 cu/s, the climatologist explained. 

Given this context, Central Asian countries sign agreements each year on transboundary water management to prevent excessive water withdrawal and misuse.

“The construction of Kambarata-1 HPP, with a capacity of 5.6 billion cubic meters, may raise concerns for Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and especially Uzbekistan. Combined with the 20 cubic kilometers of water that the Toktogul Reservoir can hold, another facility capable of storing 5.6 cubic kilometers could potentially create issues, as the Syr Darya only accumulates 13.3 cubic kilometers annually,” Abdullakhatov pointed out.

According to him, at the same time Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are experiencing a shortage of electricity, so they have authorized the construction of a large facility, also taking into account these needs.

” How will Uzbekistan benefit from this? Following the construction of Kambarata-1, the water released in winter for electricity production will flow into the Toktogul Reservoir. This water can then be used in the summer for irrigation in Uzbekistan’s Fergana Valley, producing electricity and supplying water. However, as Kyrgyzstan’s economy grows, it may start using more water from the Toktogul Reservoir, leading Uzbekistan to focus on compensating for this electricity demand during the winter, ensuring that Kyrgyzstan does not deplete the reservoir’s water, ” explained the expert.

This underscores the need for more efficient operation of Central Asia’s unified energy system, the ‘energy ring,’ to manage water resources effectively. This system was created in the 1970s to balance seasonal energy and water needs during irrigation periods.

“It should be taken into account that Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have few thermal power plants, and the construction of solar and wind power plants is not developed due to geographical location in mountainous areas, as in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Therefore, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan should help their neighbors with electricity in winter to retain water in reservoirs and avoid water shortages in summer and future years amid global warming and decreasing water resources,” he said. 

In Erkin Abdullakhatov’s opinion, while the project’s impact on the environment may not be severe, the risks of water scarcity, desertification, land degradation, and dust storms pose a much larger threat.

He also pointed out that in Uzbekistan the development of the hydrological network is limited, which makes it difficult to implement large hydropower projects.

“The share of hydropower in generation is between 10% and 15%. But there are no prospects for building large dammed HPPs in Uzbekistan, because we will not have enough water resources, which are already becoming scarce. Therefore, the country is focusing on the construction of mini-hydropower plants,” the climatologist explained.

Askarali Karimov noted that the construction of this facility may not bring Uzbekistan great economic and financial benefits, but it is a strategically important project for the country in terms of maintaining peace and good relations with neighbors.

However, Uzbekistan will have a 33% stake in the project, which means owning a third of the water or electricity.

“I support this project in view of the political benefit as well as getting electricity. It is also worth considering that in the future there will be less demand for water in Uzbekistan due to the reduction of irrigated land,” he said.

Construction of a large reservoir of Kambarata HPP-1 on the Naryn River should improve the operation mode of the Toktogul HPP reservoir, which will be able to provide the necessary balance of the irrigation regime in the Naryn-Syrdarya basin.

“Thanks to this project, our three countries will begin tracking water usage more effectively. In economics, we use the terms ‘supply and demand.’ The supply must meet or slightly exceed the demand. Through calculations, we will have precise data on the water volume in the Syr Darya River. This will also encourage countries to revise the water-use agreements made in the last century (in 2023, Kazakhstan announced its intent to amend the agreement on water and energy resources use in the Syr Darya basin with Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan). Perhaps the Kambarata-1 HPP will be the project that changes our approach to water management,” he stated.

However, constructing a hydroelectric station with an anticipated height of 256 meters presents a significant technical challenge.

“First, there is the complexity of logistics, delivering necessary materials such as cement, gravel, and rebar. There’s also the question of whether engineers from Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan will participate and whether our scientists will be given access to conduct earthquake resistance studies. This project requires extensive geological research,” the expert noted.

The construction of such large-scale facilities, regardless of their societal benefits, inevitably causes harm to the environment.

“The site will be surrounded by mountains, requiring the displacement of mountain soils. After rains, these will wash down and settle in the rivers below.”

“There will be numerous ecological issues. I agree with environmentalists that river courses will be altered, and there will be impacts on the flora and fauna. A thorough environmental analysis is essential to account for potential changes in soil composition and water pollution during the project’s implementation,” he emphasized.

Janai Sagyn, a professor at the University of Michigan and an expert in water resources and hydrological engineering, told Orda.kz that the primary beneficiary of the Kambarata-1 HPP would not be Kazakhstan or even Kyrgyzstan but neighboring Uzbekistan. According to him, Uzbekistan will soon face challenges from the construction of the Qosh Tepa Canal in Afghanistan. Once completed, this canal will divert about a third of the water from the Amu Darya River, forcing Uzbekistan to rely more on the Syr Darya basin for its water needs.

To compensate for the water Afghanistan will draw from the Amu Darya, Uzbekistan will need to extract an equivalent amount from the Syr Darya, Sagyn explained. A similar situation occurred when Uzbekistan built the Aydarkul Reservoir, which significantly reduced the Aral Sea’s water levels, prompting Kazakhstan to build a dam to mitigate the problem.

Askarali Karimov noted that Afghanistan contributes 15% of the Amu Darya’s water, giving it the right to claim water from the river. However, due to ongoing conflicts, Central Asia has not established agreements with Afghanistan on managing transboundary river basins.

“I disagree with the idea that Uzbekistan plans to offset water losses from the Amu Darya through the Syr Darya. Geographically, we cannot divert water from the Syr Darya basin to regions like Surkhandarya, Kashkadarya, or Bukhara. To do so, we would need to either dig a massive canal or connect two existing ones—an unrealistic project,” he stated.

The engineer added that Uzbekistan should focus on water conservation and the implementation of water-saving technologies within the country, as additional volumes from the Syr Darya or Amu Darya alone won’t solve the looming water crisis.

There are also risks associated with the lengthy construction of the station, which could lead to changes in political leadership and reduced attention to the project. The high cost and long payback period mean that the countries involved will likely need to secure external financing.

The project’s feasibility study is being conducted by Swiss company AFRY, which is expected to deliver a technical report by May 2025. “This will clarify many aspects related to seismology, risks, and safety,” the expert concluded.